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When a Coup is NOT a coup - and why?, page-24

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Richard1973

66 Posts.

169

13/02/21

22:24

Post #: 50963192
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Originally posted by Protagonist: ↑

As expected, the sanctions announced by the Biden Administration yesterday specifically target the personnel business interests of the junta leaders and their close family members.

The US has also foreshadowed export controls. While the nature of these haven't been listed in detail yet, they will exclude items considered critical for the Burmese public (e.g. medical supplies). It was previous hinted this category might include export of 'financial services', but its not clear to me if this will be the case

The Administration has hinted other sanctions and measures are under consideration and will be rolled-out in coordination with partners in Europe and Asia (I assume this means Australia and Japan)

What does this all mean for our project? In my opinion, three things

1. At this point in time, there are no sanctions in place to prevent the project sourcing finance from the US or other countries
2. However, in the future, there is a risk the project will lose access to US capital markets (if Biden prohibits the export of financial services to Myanmar)
3. More broadly, the impositions of sanctions (with the threat of more to come) casts a shadow over the Burmese business environment and will certainly make many financiers reluctant to invest (due to concerns about business risk and reputational damage)

In a nutshell, sanctions are (so far) not as severe as many of the trolls and salt-rubbers in this forum were predicting, but they do significantly reduce the likelihood of our project sourcing funds from US, EU, East Asian capital markets. We depend on funding from China or perhaps from a 3rd party within Myanmar itself

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I think this is spot on. I would just add that no ban on the export of financial services is currently contemplated by the US. There is an understanding of how bad the impact of that was on ordinary people and non-military businesses last time around.

MYL Price at posting: 7.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
12 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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When a Coup is NOT a coup - and why?, page-24

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