I don't understand the relevance of your response, to be honest.
For me, rational investing is about buying something as if the market were closing (permanently) the day after purchase. So your return is all about what THE BUSINESS will do.
Sure, it is rational to sell, if the opportunity that presents itself is compelling, or if you have sound reason to redeploy capital. But I ENTER the marriage as described.
Grand finals or semi finals or anything in between, are irrelevant. Every opportunity comes with its owm risk-vs-reward (or your opinion of) - which drives position size. But this risk-reward (as a general principle) is all about the business, not the market.
IV is a number that distills the future of the business - not its future market rating. 'Time to' it makes no sense, it is already discounted against time.
To invest on the basis of market re-rates (including time to) is as popular, as it is speculative & (for almost everyone) self defeating.
