Why would you short Tassals *now*?, page-289

Nice work.
I think the numbers should come in around the mark, but looking at Goldmans research they're predicting essentially flat EBITDA for the year and NPAT falling due to higher D&A.
The concern from my perspective will be how much the market focuses on the expected fall in margin for both salmon and prawns. If they extrapolate ebitda per kilo into forward forecasts we might get a negative reaction. If it's seen as a cyclical weak period then should be ok.
I find it difficult to believe TGR will materially miss the brokers numbers for this half. Credit Suisse and Goldmans have both published recently and you would expect they'd have grilled the company before going out on a limb.
Stranger things have happened, but if there's a major surpise it's way out of character, they tend to hit current consensus (because they set it).