The Last time RP was at about the same level as now
was DEC 07 when it was 135 and DAP whats disturbing is
DAP was at 594 usd/t.
To get an idea of where RP is heading assuming constant
DAP due to the lag effect I checked what the RP price
was last time DAP was similiar ro price now.This was in
Feb 07 when DAP was 345/t.The scary answer is RP was
only 46/t then !!
Also on top of that forecasts for DAP are not good with
DAP futures at 278/t in July 09 (Refer fert. report)
If your not concerned about this historical analysis
you should be.The risk/reward simply doeant stack up.
disturbing lag of rp to dap
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