@Stayso 54 you don’t have any more authority to comment on this board than anyone else, whether as a stakeholder or not. RB is probably the more higher value poster on this board and we’ve had some good discussions in the past. Recently Ooger has decided to join in on the discussions which is pleasing since there are few who can discuss the technicalities associated with these complicated clinical studies.
We’re all here to make money, but some of us are also here to learn more (or receive updates) about the company we’re invested in. Everyone has their own investment thesis, whether it includes understanding the company and its products or investing blindly and finding a safe place in an echo chamber where people only say positive things about a stock, or whether it’s because GK is at the helm of the company, and our investment lives or dies by these decisions.
I am a deep value investor, which brought me to Noxopharm in the first instance, so I understand the “forest for the trees” expression, although it is severely misguided. Biotech investing depends on binary outcomes which can shift the share price up or down >30% on a single announcement (or a tree in this case). Just look at the LuPIN results. These are not minor movements in share price. You can buy and hold, but biotech stocks are speculative by nature and financial advisors probably would not recommend it unless the company has products registered or has a significant source of revenue. Due to the risks it is always recommended assess your exposure and aim to free carry when investing in biotech stocks.
If anyone is concerned by yesterday’s price action, you should be. Yesterday’s announcements show Noxopharm will not be able to enter into a partnership agreement in 2021. The necessary IP protections are missing and there are no clinical trials planned that are either phase 2b or higher. This means there will be another capital raise by the end of the year. I’ve mentioned this previously, but 2021 will not be the year of Noxopharm. 2022/2023 might very well be, depending on the clinical trial results and the results of other studies.
So lets break down the “forest for the trees” expression using yesterday’s announcement:
- Noxopharm does not yet have the necessary IP protection, which will severely impact the company in any partnership negotiations. When and if it obtains IP protection, this will re-rate the company.
- Success for the LuPIN trial is dependant on the results of the TheraP and VISION trials.
- DARRT-2 is only a phase 2a trial to test dosage and there was no mention of DARRT-3 or the previously mentioned adaptive design.
- Ionic is a phase 1 trial?
- NOXCOVID-1 is not designed to treat COVID. It’s designed to generate information about sepsis/cytokine release syndrome that Pharmorage can leverage.
It is not much of a forest just yet, but it has the potential to be. We won’t know until 2022/2023.
@peterkins22 thanks for the heads up. This is all the more reason why we should be cautious of posters (and without naming anyone in particular on this board) that comment: “Any discussion which questions the validity and significance of the research effort is nothing more than a distraction”. I find GK is very transparent and is doing a great job, especially considering the company was only started in 2016.
Not advice, DYOR, GLTAH
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