Risk vs Reward!

I’m down over $100K on AGL already. But I still have lots of hope. I think every share we purchase is a risk va reward type of decision.
How I see it with AGL: I think share price could range from $7 to $20 in the next couple of years. In 2 years time as of next week I would collect 5 dividends that would be circa $2 more or less. So if I include these dividends in, the range would be $9 to $22. That gives me a downside of $1 vs an upside of $12 on a 2years hold from today’s price of $10 and I’m trying to be very realistic here. I cannot find any risk reward opportunity out there that could come anywhere near this. This is why I’m happily holding. Of course I know that anything’s possible but still however I look at this, potential reward is way way higher than the risk involved. Maybe this is the reason the top 20 share holders are holding too. Who knows!

IMHO, DYOR