asciano says four parties eyeing full takeover, page-3

Hi Selmak,

I have been watching this story develop, and hence bought in too for a number of facts:

1) Some time ago they were offered $4.40. Fair enough conditions have gone down the drain, but I'd say a 50% discount still leaves us with a bid price of $2.20

2) The trading seen on Friday by big banks right at the close proves there is more in the kitty bag then Asciano is revealing

3) Bids generally involve an average of the past few working days (ie the premium component). I'm not sure on the VWAP of the last 10 days, but I am sure it would be in the 1.40-150 range. If that is the case then a 20-30% premium puts us around the $2.00 mark

4) In time, these assets will be worth well over then their bid price. So for a private equity firm it makes sense to buy at these prices (or lower) and refloat the business within 3-5 years.

What are your thoughts? Will I still be in the money?