finally some cracks in the rally, page-61

Hi Alabama, I think the AUD is seriously overpriced, probably due to short coverings as the rally has just kept going suprising most people.....

Dollar is also being held up due to the high interest rate differential but I think that will abate soon as more reality kicks in,,,,buget is going to show that we have a defecit and probably need to borrow more, more debt and weak GDP should over time reduce the value of the AUD...

some newswires that may be of interest to traders, one on NCM and one from NAB on the dollar

0030 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citi upgrades Newcrest (NCM.AU) to Buy from Hold, cuts
target price to A$34.50 from A$37.00. "Safe haven gold trade is waning as concerns
over global financial crisis abates and global risk appetite increases, but USD
depreciation could support as concerns mount over USD debt levels," Citi says.
Target price falls on lower earnings forecasts, driven by AUD upgrade and higher forecast
depreciation. Maintains Hold rating for Lihir Gold (LGL.AU) and lowers target price to
A$3.30 from A$3.50. NCM trading up 7 cents at A$29.57, LGL flat at A$3.02. (APW)


2241 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD has overshot weekly "fair value" estimate of
0.6900, National Australia Bank Senior Currency Strategist John Kyriakopoulos says; adds
pair is "most expensive" it's been since early January. "Positioning
now presents a real hurdle for the AUD unless economic reports show that global growth
has turned positive again - rather than confirming an abating global recession."
Says based on previous pullbacks, expects pair to retreat to about 0.7350. AUD/USD now
0.7575. (SRH)


FYI SHORT POSITIONS 27% of yesterdays trade, that indicates to me things continue to get crowded and the bounce when it comes will be very hard, just waiting on the catalyst..given the numbers it appears that there must be some big punters/funds taking a short position,,,,when one decides to cover the sheer volume short will get us back to 31.50 imo - very quickly

GL all