who reports big jump in swine flu cases, page-16

Latest analysis based on current (but still very limited) data:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/1176062

Also at

http://sciencenow.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/2009/511/1

Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1) : Early Findings

Estimate of 23,000 individuals (range 6,000-32,000) had been infected in Mexico by late April.

Each person is infecting 1 1/2 others. Higher than seasonal flu, but in the lower ranges of previous pandemics. Seem to think it is more like the 1957 flu rather than the 1918-1919.

CFR number is hopefully overestimated.


Mal