I for one do not want a repeat of 2011 - been there done that. Ideally there should be no tw or threat of 'weaponizing' of REEs. I much prefer REE price increase to be driven by demand, and although the former is playing a role, I believe it is an increase demand in conjunction with restricted production that is driving the increase in REE prices. If NdPr price stays between RMB450-550k/t I'm more than happy. Double that and I will actually be concerned, not happy.
Intra-China PMM demand is high, to a large extent due to the increase in (N)EV production. Total Chinese NdPr production has been running at ~50% capacity, and got caught with their pants down, so a phased production increase makes total sense. I do NOT think this will affect pricing (more than stabilising it), as demand is continuously increasing as well (Chinese NEV sales predicted to grow by 50% 2021, which I believe is a low estimate).
In regards to LYC sp, I don't even know if you have a spreadsheet of your own or if you just rely on analysts lacking vision, but if you do, why don't you punch in current prices and current production and see what comes out at the other end? IMO, we are STILL very poorly valued.
For LYC to increase production, ex-China market needs to get into gear (I agree there is a two-speed market), but IMO this is currently happening (and will become clear through 2021).
And lastly, as mentioned, one way or the other you are full of it. Why on earth would you sit on a share expecting the type of sp depreciation you are talking about? Either you do not hold or you dont trust yourself.
For readers getting this far into my post - today was an overall dump of green energy stocks (due to interest rate concerns), nothing to do with tomorrows H1 report.
LYC Price at posting:
$5.80 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)