Ann: Updated Federation Mineral Resource Estimate, page-17

Here's a long answer. I can't really answer with any definitive figures it because Dargues is, as far as I'm concerned, too unknown. I think they'll be disappointed in the low grade for the first very short period. Is anyone registered for the conference call? The question I'd like answered is what is Dargues performing like now...throughput and grade and recovered gold. We need roughly 8Koz. I thought we were at least $1.20 pre Dargues. If Dargues gives 50koz for its first FY, it would be useful. The company has said it has identified efficiencies so why would we expect anything less than the midpoint of guidance. It's my view we overpaid for Dargues and have taken on a lot of risk so should have sought some minimum recoveries for starters. 1.2 billion shares is nothing like 860 million. but if we roughly go 2/3 of the $1.20 we get 80 cents, to equal the same market cap.
When Federation kicks in we easily overshoot. Here's a very rough guide which could simply be miles out even if metal prices alone shift. We should have revenue of just over $700 million p.a. and be netting $200 million. To be $1 the company needs to be worth $1.2billion , an increase of 150% (40c to $1).
I'm picking Great Cobar is going to get moving given copper is $11,500 a ton. There's an interval of 6% copper and some gold grades of 5g/t. If Dargues performs, Federation gets extended cos it's open in different directions, Hera keeps delivering and even improves at depth which is likely, and Great Cobar comes in as a huge extension to LOM, what we have today will be a drop in the bucket.
I'm not a large investor but I did sell some at 80 and rebought at 27. Happy to hold for 1 - 2 years now cos it owes me nothing and that seems to me to be the rough timeframe when we'll be running hot and cash rich.
My estimate back in December for Federation was $2.4 billion but that wasn't hard to calculate with the stated resource and then allowing for the December explorations results. Let's hope we keep adding on multiple fronts, and get these good grades through the mills. Addition to the milling grades gives us a leg up. Instos in my opinion now want results to flow through to the bottom line.
Hope that helps. Dividend time and some decent Hera for 6 months, Dagues doing what it should = 60c at least.