I know they say that this is broadly in line with guidance, but I feel it's not quite true. NPAT is looking at being $32m-$35m, and that's well down from $40m in FY20. Their previous guidance was it would be inline with previous year (no growth but not deteriorating), and that it would be 20%/80% split across H1 and H2. Well, H1 is $9.5m and they are therefore expecting it to be around $23-28m in H2, which is closer to 30%/70%.
They have definitely underestimated the impact on today's revenue, EBITDA and bottom line earnings from Covid-19 and particularly their UK operations. While their pipeline seems strong, hard to trust that there has been no change in the past 12 months while they have lost some subscriptions to competitors.
Too much risk at the moment, and too little evidence that things will turnaround. I'm out, maybe back in later.
BVS Price at posting:
$2.88 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Held
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