i think we will see $24 before we see $50
40% drop in coal and iron ore revenues coming soon.
iron ore and coal comprise of a very large part of BHP's earnings
share prices follow earnings and not charts
in 2010, BHP will not earn $1.89 EPS per half year
In first half 2009, BHP earned EBIT of $4,143m from iron and $4,195m from coal, representing 70% of its EBIT.
To be generous, if we reduce petroleum revenue by 40%, iron ore revenue by 35%, coal revenue by 40% and based metals revenue by 25%, half yearly revenue comes to $21,456m.
Using the same cost base as last half, namely, $17,881m, EBIT for one-half = US$3,575 or US$7,150m annually.
I cannot work out the tax but last half it was around 61% so NPAT = US$4,361 or AUS$5,815 on exchange rate of 75 cents.
Divide by 5,586m shares on issue = AUS$1.04 EPS for the whole year.
Clearly some costs will be cut, such as closing Ravensthorpe and lower wages for employees.
If we reduce expenses by 15%, annual EBIT = US$12,514.
NPAT for 2010 = US$7,508, or AUS$10,011m.
EPS for 2010 = $1.80, back to levels of year ending 30 June 2006.
Place on PE ratio of 12 = share price target = $21.50.
Up the EPS to $2 and share price target = $24.00
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