@wasko
Not sure if this scenario is completely factual . And I say this for two reasons with the first reasons being that it fails to recognize that the conversion of ALL the remaining options starting with ALL the 524,048,300 listed 2.5 cent listed options which would bring in another $13,101,208 if converted. Then there is the remaining 11,115,021 unlisted 2.5 cent ones which in turn would generate another $277,875
I think its fair to say after seeing what Richards did with his 5.4 cent options that we would see the same with the 27 million 4.5 cent options , as well as the 3,833,333 4 cent ones , and the 6.3 million 8.2 ones. So there is another $1,884,933.
Then there is the 50 million 13.5 cent Broker options set to bring into the coffers another $6.75 million.
So the so called ' facts ' do not support the fact that under this scenario , the company would have access to another $22,014,016 in future working capital. Does this number seem a Coincidence ? MAYBE.
Then my second reason would be that his so called ' Facts ' as you say presumes that the merger will go ahead on these same terms. O.K so let's presume it does , and lets also presume that the market already knew about it and has priced it in. Because that's what markets do right.
O.K so using round numbers of the 2 billion shares the market knew was going to be the starting point which includes obviously the 200 million new shares it already knew about when the market was halted. O.K , so then we have the assumed 825 million new shares coming on stream when the merger is complete. So let's forget about the fact they will be isolated and subject to an escrow period which his ' Facts ' haven't factored in. O.K so again in rounded numbers for ease of simplicity we now have 2.8 billion shares on issue WITHOUT any further conversion of options.
So 2.8 billion at 8.3 cents is a market cap of $232,400,00 or around the $200 million mark which Adrian was quoted as saying the company should be worth right.
So what is the ratio of the hypothetical shares on issue inclusive of 825 million merger issue - ie 2.8 billion as expressed in percentage terms to the current approximate 2 billion shares inclusive of what the Market knew of the 200 million to be issued in the current raise at the time the shares were halted. O.K so if you've done you match correctly that should deliver a percentage increase of 40%.
Now multiply 8.3 cents x 1.4 and what do you get ..... 11.6 cents right......
Closing price at time of raise right
So what his so called ' Facts ' do not seem to account for , and my second reason for disagreeing is the fact that the Market seems to have already priced in the value of the ' Post ' merged shares on issue making the fair value 1 pip above the 8.2 cent unlisted Directors options and 8.3 cents as a starting value and before any further working capital comes in via conversion of any further available options.
And we know that tech values are often based at around 10 times the last raised amount of capital. This is a well known fact and can be sighted across many other raising's and yet to be listed tech companies in the US.
So currently with $20 million or thereabouts available capital , a $200 million market cap would seem thereabouts. Again 8.3 cents seems a fair value.
But what happens if Cirralto where to obtain another $20 million in the not too distant future and with accruing net transaction revenues have $40 million in working capital . Well that's $400 million right ? Which again puts us ' Post ' merge , and ' Post ' conversion of ALL options at approximately 3,422,296,654 SOI at $400 million market cap and equaling
again.......11.6 - 11.7 cents right folks......
And this is not magic folks , it is just how the numbers keep coming back to the same figure. And isn't there a saying that the market more often than not gets and predicts it correctly. And of course there are always reasons for this.......
(20min delay)