yea mate, posted a while back but some may have missed it. I cant say im 100% correct and the updated DFS will surely reflect AVZ calculations on the NPV / share price but from what ive calculated using elphamales case 3 study i came up with $0.75 per share to match the NPV with the wedge.
As per below, but I've also uploaded the workings for 90% ownership to twitter using the below calcs. @miljew91
AVZ wedge potential upsidecalculations as specified in AGM presentation
Whatwe know-
1. 28 Year LOM
2. 36% increase in LOM operatingcosts
3. 43% increase in LOM revenue
UsingElphamale’s table Case 3-
Calculationsfor no VAT refund-
Total revenue usingcase 3 + 43% = $16,242,821,869 x 43% = $6,984,413,403.67
= $16,242,821,869 + $6,984,413,403.67
= $23,227,235,272.67
Total OPEX using case3 + 36%= $5,920,124,340 x 36% = $2,131,244,762.4
= $5,920,124,340 + $$2,131,244,762.4
= $8,051,369,102.4
EBITDA= $15,175,866,170.27
Total CAPEX using case3= $545,470,000
Gross profit=$14,630,396,170.27
VAT tax paid* (11.48%gross profit)= $1,679,569,480.34 *(11.48% was worked out through elphamales calcs as I couldn’t figure out what the 16% VAT calc was done on, DFS says 16% so VAT could be slightly higher)
Income tax paid (30%gross profit)= $4,389,118,851.081
Export tax paid (5% onall revenues)= $1,161,361,763.63
Import Tax paid= $29,000,000
Total NPAT 100%= Gross profit - Taxes
= $14,630,396,170.27 - 7,259,050,095.05
= $7,371,346,075.22 USD
|
| With wedge results | Without wedge results |
|---|
| 1 | NPAT 75% to AVZ | $5,528,509,556.415 | $3,660,369,342 |
|---|
| 2 | Average annual NPAT | $197,446,769.87 (28 Years) | $183,018,467 (20 Years) |
|---|
| 3 | EPS 3 Billion | 0.065 | 0.061 |
|---|
| 4 | SP P/E 10 | $0.65 USD = $0.84 AUD | $0.610 USD |
|---|
| 5 | SP P/E 15 | $0.975 USD = $1.27 AUD | $0.915 USD |
|---|
| 6 | SP P/E 35 (The honey pot) | $2.275 USD = $ 2.96 AUD | $2.135 USD |
|---|
Calculationsfor VAT refund-
Total revenue usingcase 3 + 43% = $16,242,821,869 x 43% = $6,984,413,403.67
= $16,242,821,869 + $6,984,413,403.67
= $23,227,235,272.67
Total OPEX using case3 + 36%= $5,920,124,340 x 36% = $2,131,244,762.4
= $5,920,124,340 + $$2,131,244,762.4
= $8,051,369,102.4
EBITDA= $15,175,866,170.27
Total CAPEX using case3= $545,470,000
Gross profit=$14,630,396,170.27
VAT tax paid= $0
Income tax paid (30%gross profit)= $4,389,118,851.081
Export tax paid (5% onall revenues)= $1,161,361,763.63
Import Tax paid= $29,000,000
Total NPAT 100%= Gross profit - Taxes
= $14,630,396,170.27 - 5,579,480,614.71
= $ 9,050,915,555.56 USD
|
| With wedge results | Without wedge results |
|---|
| 1 | NPAT 75% to AVZ | $6,788,186,666.67 | $4,502,188,633 |
|---|
| 2 | Average annual NPAT | $242,435,238.09 (28 Years) | $225,109,432 |
|---|
| 3 | EPS 3 Billion | 0.080 | 0.075 |
|---|
| 4 | SP P/E 10 | $0.80 USD = $1.04 AUD | $ 0.75 USD |
|---|
| 5 | SP P/E 15 | $1.20 USD = $ 1.56 AUD | $ 1.125 USD |
|---|
| 6 | SP P/E 35 (The honey pot) | $2.80 USD = $ 3.64 AUD | $2.625 USD |
|---|
NPV of project using online NPV calculator-
NPAT (75% to AVZ) = $6,788,186,666.67
Average annual NPAT= $242,435,238.09
NPV over 28 year LOM =$1,710,769,665.62 USD
= $2,221,075,149.18 AUD!!!!!
Current Marketcap 16/01/2021 = $591,250,000
Current Shareprice 16/01/2021= $0.20
% of NPV=-375% (3.756575304862579281183932346723)
Share price to matchNPV=$0.75
Disclaimer: I think Iveworked out my calcs correctly bar the VAT could be slightly higher. DYOR thisis not financial advise. Also thanks again to elphamale and your calcs I'velearnt alot by deciphering them.
Always happy to be corrected if I messed up myworkings
