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Afterpay isn't making money, page-152

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investorNoob

223 Posts.

29

08/03/21

22:28

Post #: 51612030
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Originally posted by coppergaz: ↑

finally someone posting something about the actual business!!!

far to much rubbish posted this week and very little on fundamentals/valuation of apt (pros and cons)... mostly over dramatic noise about the tech sector and bond yields and investors circulating out of growth stocks and into value stocks. (not dismissing each of those as valid point of conversation, but when it drowns out actually fundamentals of a business. its too much)

just wanted to throw a couple of talking points and remind ourselves of the actual business and possible future potential.

1st off nothing has fundamentally changed with afterpay. it still growing at incredible speed.

remember a couple of years back apt realeased a report that contained within
- apt has the ambitious goal of achieving 20B in sales by FY22-
apt will likely pass this goal approximately 1 year early (look fwd to fy21 to see this beat)
that is absolutely amazing! I cant say how much of an uplift that is. and by the time fy22 comes total sales will probably be 100% higher than the initial target! (imo)

remember fy17 apt had total sales of 561 million, now looking at fy21 apt will have grow that 35X to 20 BILLION.
serious growth and continuing growth to be had.

apt already has more expansion to come online soon with
Spain, France, Italy and Portugal.

apt are exploring the potential for global listings which imo points to nasdaq listing.

food for thought

APT have 13.5 million customers,

i think its reasonable to say customer growth will continue, and an average of 50% increase for next 3 years isnt a stretch.

that equals over 45 million customers (using someone elses dynamics for this calculation)

45 mill customers using the apt 15× a year at approx $150 average transactions is over
$100 BILLION in sales.
if apt take 5% thats 5 billion in revenue
if 30% becomes profit that will be profit of 1.5 Billion.
profit equals to 1.5% of totals sales.
im underestimating to be cautious!

give that fair valuation of 30 x profit and all of a sudden apt fair market cap value is 45 billion.

45 billion without adding any upside to more growth, or taking into account future activities ie apt money westpac partnership, new regional expansion, nasdaq listing and other unknowns yet to come.

if fair market value is 45B market cap in 3 years imagine what it will be if you add exuberance towards future growth following on from the 3 years. MC pushed out to 60B? 70B?

all imo (and whosoever dynamics i used for 3 year growth)

this is an easy hold for me!

mado why are you here??

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Where do you see APT profits coming from ? Do you think it is from BNPL or a pivot into something else ?

APT Price at posting: $111.20 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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