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Origin Energy Stategic Positioning, page-132

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    At 1.845 trillion cubic feet as of February 26, stocks are 13.1% below last year’s level. Moreover, inventories were 8.8% under the five-year average for the end of February.
    At the end of the 2020 withdrawal season, stockpiles stood at 1.986 trillion cubic feet, 141 bcf above the latest supplies.
    Stocks will continue to decline over the coming weeks. By the first week of March, 88 bcf decline in inventories is probably conservative.
    The Saudis are in deep shit with their debt and keeping a lid on their ever growing anxious younger generation...who dont really care about a Monarch...let alone the Houthi...
    The bottom line is the shift in US Energy policy is bullish for oil and gas prices. We are already seeing the impact filter through to prices of the energy commodities.
    China is having the coldest winter in decades as is the rest of Asia...apart from here where it NEVER STOPS RAINING....
    Petro China receives 28.8mcu m daily and is 1/2 of their daily requirement...so Qatar has picked up the baton...and has told Japan, Korea and other Asian counterparts to get on the phone to Australia...
    As usual it is supply & demand and a good shock of some description always helps...
    The war drums in Canberra are banging louder with gas gas gas...so that makes our life a lot easier when we have Assets to supply...APLNG looks somewhat slow now...but where we will be 1 year from now is a lot higher than current pricing ratio...the amount of Capex required to cater for demand 18 months out is appalling...which indicates a brighter futures for gas prices than what we have now or where we have been....
    I watch the Swiss energy futures exchange and commodity trading accounted for 4.8% of GDP as apposed to last year with $33B...a large parcel of the pickup was energy related and gas futures were showing some 24.6% contracts going forward WITH NOWHERE TO STORE IT....
    Its something to watch when thinking about where to put your money instead of a bank...I think a 7% to 8% div yield is in the making...
    Just my thoughts...
 
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