My take on inflation is that it will show up more significantly around the time when US economy is out of Covid lockdown i.e. around May-June period: all the pent up consumerism will be released then. Mar-Apr inflationary figures are going to be quite meaningless.
Below section of an article is from CNBC, which is more reflective of what may happen on the inflation front:
If it hits average of 2.9% and if 10yr bond yield is going to stay around the 2% mark (i.e. if FED decides to manipulate the yield curve), then the real 10yr bond yield is going to remain negative and that is going to be good for gold.
My personal view (gut feel) is that the inflation figure is going to be in the 4-5% by Dec 2021. If so, then the inflation genie is out of the bottle and that will be great for GP as history had shown in 1975 and 1979 when GP doubled and tripled respectively. The comparative year for us will be 2023 and the GP will be US$3,400/oz or US$5,100. I will take the lower figure since the velocity of money is low this time around as compared to 1975 and 1979 periods.
Morning time musing on GP potential!
DYOR.