Comments Clearly Forecast PEP Decision, page-8

Basically I think people are underestimating the importance of Scomo’s sentiment. It would be a huge free kick to Labor if his own government approves Pep-11 despite him saying he thinks it would be the wrong decision.

He didn’t just say he’s sympathetic to the risks and understands it needs to be examined carefully - he said it would be the wrong decision.

It will allow Labor to either paint him as a PM without control of his cabinet, or as a PM who says one thing and does another. Either is bad electorally.

I also think people underestimate the risks of the liberals losing or not recovering Robertson, Mackellar and Warringah. Dobell would also have to be in play.

This election is going to be hard-fought as it is so I can’t imagine the government wanting to do anything risky for those seats. This government has no shame as far as pork barrelling goes remember - so I don’t believe for a second that they will consider Pep-11 in a neutral a-political light.

The OP makes a good case tho - my issues are just some of the case in response. Overall I lean heavily towards a likely “no” but it could still definitely go either way.

I’m watching closely because the political ramifications are fascinating.