This will be an interesting week indeed for nst.
The relationship between the inverted price of gold and the us10 note have been very tightly correlated recently, with the us10 picking up speed to be trying to reach the point at which gold stands right now(probably why yields went up as well as the gold price, as the inverted gold price reaches the current point in us10 notes).
The only way that gold survives this environment is by staying in negative interest rate territory but inflation has been pretty tepid, so as the nominal yield rises together with tepid inflation, real rates get closer to zero thus creating an opportunity cost for gold holders.
Yields could be indicating inflation but IMO they are just normalising with the expectations of a strong us economy. So far I haven't seen any data print to indicate any meaningful uptick in long term inflationary expectations. Nonethe less the first rate hike has probably been brought forward by a few months and now targeting late 2022 or early 2023.
Productivity numbers are still weak and the fed sees short term cost pressures but don't see it as a long term big deal.
I'm ready to sell half Monday at a tiny profit I can in consideration of the interest rate headwind on gold. Waiting until rates consolidate or begin a downtrend might present a better confirmation to get back into nst. That or hitting below the 50% mark from its ATH.
Who the fk knows at this stage, it's a mystery.
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 12568 | 14.120 |
1 | 5566 | 14.110 |
5 | 15667 | 14.100 |
2 | 31241 | 14.090 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
14.200 | 3500 | 1 |
14.210 | 21518 | 5 |
14.220 | 10967 | 1 |
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14.240 | 67918 | 1 |
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