TVN 0.00% 5.1¢ tivan limited

TNG forum for considered and general comments, page-199

  1. 469 Posts.
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    I'm certainly not looking at the past and where timelines have been missed.

    I mean the complexity of this project and the constant enhancements and refinements to the project by SMS and the additional offerings will pay dividends once this thing does go to production assuming Peake (not Tivan) isn't taken off our hand first.

    The announcement today simply tells you what is coming and how advanced finalisation of this project to FID is.

    The NT government is very fickle but looks like PB has pinned them down. We must remembers governments and regulators don't operate in the real world. They have no idea of commercial imperatives and timelines so we must be cognisant of that.

    The message is clear:

    - FEED end of month.
    - EPC and product guarantees to follow - surely that's been done with the FEED just formality.
    - Financing is done subject to final capex number. I would be surprised if we can't get full debt for capex given what NAÏF has handed our recently. So between KfW and NAIF you would expect circa A$1bn in funding is very achievable.
    - EIS done (get the approval from the EPA) and Darwin land lease secured.
    - Remember the Feds have given this thing major project status. Just imagine the level of detail required to get that tick - there would have been some significant due diligence done on commercialisation reality and funding.

    Expect the market cap to move north and I'm pretty sure based on what I know we will see some new and significant shareholders come on board.

    This thing is due for a well deserved re-rate and when it does it will fly.
 
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