The future of AZJ, page-137

Did it also 'peak' in the 90s? Right before a near doubling in production over the following decade?



Current policies still project a 40% increase in worldwide thermal coal power use by 2040:



Reductions in thermal coal use by developed countries (primarily EU/US) is being replaced by growth in developing countries, with substantial growth is projected by India and other developing countries in SEA. However, even some resource poor developed nations like Japan, Korea and Taiwan are still likely to maintain use for decades. Increasing the proportion of power from renewables will not make an impact in developing countries where it is completely offset by growth, such as in India:



China's increasing demand for metallurgical coal is likely to ease, as their recycling infrastructure and scrap supplies increase, and their growth steadies with a transition towards a developed economy. However India and SEA are likely to step in to take China's place, with India looking to triple steel output to 300Mt by 2030, requiring far more reliance on coking coal imports than China. Whilst alternatives to thermal coal for power exist, albeit impractical for many use cases, there is no alternative to coking coal for fresh steel output.

Any changes in global use of either need to be considered in terms of export demand regardless, which is unlikely to fall even in the best case scenario of reducing net global use. Given Australia's stable AAA economy, and the fact our thermal coal is some of the cleanest in the world, with our metallurgical coal some of the highest quality, both will retain strong demand in the export market.