Hi Folks,
Trying to get a fresh handle on the value of CUE's PNG assets, but info CUE put out is a bit scant, wondering if anyone has any comments on the following observations, or can fill some gaps.
Firstly the HZN deal.
I estimate from HZN data that they had approx 617 bcfe in Stanley and Elevala prior to the deal. Implies USD55mm for 308 bcfe remaining after the deal (7.3 Ac/ HZN share)
US 18c/mcf (23 Ac/mcfe) implied.
CUE state 150 bcfe net for Barikewa and Kimu. If equiv value A$35mm, or 5.5 Acps CUE.
Now the tough question - are the assets equivalent value on a bcfe basis?
HZN data suggests Elevala is liquids rich, over 60 bbl/mmscf, liquids possibly being more marketable than gas.
CUE state nothing on gas liquids ratios??
HZN seem to have a plan for Stanley, but imho the plan still looks a bit tenious/far off for Elevala.
Barikewa is clearly the key CUE asset (4 x greater than Kimu), and looks well located. OSH and STO each have a large stake which is good imho, but Exxon isn't in which I assume pushes it well back in the LNG queue?
23c/mcf doesn't look a strech with qld csg transactions going more in the 30 to 40 range (albeit 3P, but with more blue sky attached).
Appreciated if anyone can add anything to those embrionic thoughts?
Maybe safer to assume say 3cps (12.5 c/mcfe) until CUE have a plan for Barikewa? So far I've credited no value in the sp.
EL
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