We'll see who's right or wrong at the end of the day. However , I suspect I will again be the Victor. In the meantime .......
No sure how relevant your NPAT connotation is because it isn't as though they will be paying tax anytime soon. And at the end of the day .....or moreover the year , and assuming the merger / acquisition goes through before then , there will no doubt be a number of ' one off ' expenditures associated with this transaction which will be discounted if you like from any ' underlying ' calculations to net income after tax. So perhaps NOPAT would be a better measure when this time comes to report on this outlook.
Having said that , it is interesting when you look at perhaps some of the pointers from the Half Year comparative accounts to 31 December ,2020.
So when you look at the comparisons of this rather short period of time of only 6 months as compared to the same period in 2019 , it is very interesting to see that their ' Operating Payments ' are almost equal , and in fact $91,824 more than their entire ' Operating Expenses ' net of Top Line Revenue for this 6 months period .
At the same time , their 6 month reported ' Operating Loss ' is also almost the same at $1,244,341 and only less by $20,288 when you deduct the Total Top Line Revenues of $629,092 from the total payments to suppliers and employees of $1,873,433 as a hybrid ' Cash Operating ' expected level of profitable activities.
However , the really interesting points here are that despite the ' Operating Expenses ' being only up 14.7% when you add back the ' non cash ' depreciation and amortization expense difference between 2020 and 2019 , is that not only is the revenue outstripping this by growing at 233% to that of 2019 , the Liabilities of Creditors and Other payable at only $694,557 are better off by a Whopping $903,456 or almost a $1 million to that of the $1,598,013 in 2019 or the exact same amount as the entire 1st Half 2019 operating expenses net of depreciation and amortization ( non cash ) and total revenues.
So one might argue that with another significant incremental tick up in revenues to the highly anticipated $100 ARPU , they may well be very very close to being Operating Cash Flow positive by end of June quarter 2021.
And the key ' Syllabus ' in understanding here is the relationship of their ' underlying ' loss of approx $1.2 million which is a direct correlation to that of BOTH the ' Operating Expense ' Payments exceeding their revenues by the same amount , as well as reducing their re-current liabilities by $1 million from a previous half reporting time frame to being instead in line with that of each quarter reporting period . So in this unfolding situation , , their " operating payments may very well reduce to circa $900,000 - $1 million per quarter while their revenue growth outstrips again by as much as 2 to 3 times from $300,000 to $900,000 or $1.5 million for the FULL 9 months period to 31 March 2021 , and thereby setting up the Company perfectly in almost cancelling out at least half of the first half's reported loss in only the 3rd Qtr of operations and revenue growth. And this would not be an easy feat for a Company not experiencing exponential growth.
Following this, and even if they only achieve like for like revenues with ZERO top line growth in the final June Quarter , it would still be likely that it reaches a cash profit ' neutral ' position by 30 June 2021. Because the Accounts look completely set for this to occur in my opinion - but again , this will largely depend on revenue growth coming in from existing and / or additional growth in Customer Numbers as well.
And it's right there evolving for everyone to see in the Half Year Accounts as well as with the attached Illustration of comparative prior year reporting periods.......with of course Tax rates being largely irrelevant in your suggested use of a NPAT reference.
(20min delay)