Well, after 2 straight days of getting it wrong using my TA I'm starting to have my doubts about my methodology. Using my 3 strikes and out rule I'll give it one more go before trying a different approach (like just guessing):
Negative lead from Europe today going in. The US jobless data will probably set the tone for the day and could send it either way.
Going on the technical data going in, all MAs are pointing down, MACD showing no clear direction, stoch being close to oversold and momentum slightly negative.
Bearing in mind that the jobs data will probably drive the direction for the day, based purely on the technicals I'll go -70:
closest to the pin at close 21/05/09, page-18
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