1q09 results, page-10

Very impressive share price performance over the last month.

However, looking into the numbers (roughly) going forward, it looks like OGC may actually make a loss in FY 2010.

By my calcs (and I've assumed 84koz produced per quarter going forward + static operating costs, static D&A costs, & static admin costs going forward + 2/3 hedging/call options), I get total revenue of US$146m & total costs of US$148m (not including interest payments or hedge accounting losses) for FY 2010.

When adding in interest costs & fair value adjustment of remaining hedges, OGC could be running at an accounting loss.

Presumably, the D&A costs (and obviously the hedging losses) don't affect cashflow, so OGC may still be cashflow positive.

Can anyone verify my calcs?

Cheers,
Z.