Hi Stumpy,
Thanks for the input. I've taken a look at various presentations from VEN for costings and production forecasts and run some rough cashflows. Inputs and rough outputs below. My background is not finance. I'm trying to get my head around the potential longer term cash flow for MEL if the Vali appraisal and development drilling + Odin-1 delivers on the the production forecasts published by VEN. Would appreciate any input holders have on the assumptions, inputs, results etc.
Main risks
Vali 2 failure in Patchawarra and Toolachee
Odin 1 failure
Development risk, cost over-runs
Gas price
Field declines steeper than forecast
Upside
Vali-2 establishes Toolachee commerciality, resource upside
Odin-1 establishes Toolachee commerciality, resource upside
Odin-1 establishes stratigraphic component to Patchawarra resource base, resource upside
ATP2021 oil potential
Cervantes commercial oil discovery
Please DYOR
Kind regards OldGeo
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