sinclair and armstong: it is now, page-16

before we start taking a position one way or the other, lets just debate the premise on which theory is based

first lets outline the theory

armstrong assumes economies are cyclical

no arguement there

but do they work like a clock

according to armstrong they do

here is how he worked it out

He started by looking at the number of panics over the last 224 years a dividing it by the number of panic which is 26.

This gives you 8.6 years

224 years divided by 26 panics = 8.6 years

He then probably used the Kondratieff 50 – 60 cycle as a guide
remember economics is a relatively new science and reliable data is limited
Kondratieff based his 50-60 year long cycles on three cycles going back from 1929.75

according to armstrong the peak of the third cycle is 1929.75
51.6 years gets you to the peak of 1981.35
add one wave of 8.6
the next peak would be
1989.95
second wave
1998.55
third wave
2007.15
fourth wave
2015.75
fifth wave
2024.35
sixth wave
2032.95

the bottom of the waves are
1977.05
1985.65
1994.25
2002.85
2011.45

inbetween these are series of head and shoulder formations
this consists of 4 x 2.15 (8.6)
usually it is up for 2.15 year then down for 1.075 years then up again for another 1.075
after that it is down for 1.075 years
up again for 1.075
then down for 2.15 years


from my calculation the fourth long wave peaked in 1981.15

1929.75 + 51.6 = 1981.15

the next peak will therefore be 2032.55

1981.15 + 51.6 = 2032.55

ok.... LOOK CAREFULLY AT THAT FIGURE

now look at waves AGAIN

51.6 years gets you to the peak of 1981.35
add one wave of 8.6
the next peak would be
1989.95
second wave
1998.55
third wave
2007.15
fourth wave
2015.75
fifth wave
2024.35
sixth wave
2032.95

what wave are in .... the first, the second, the third, the fourth?

ACCORDING TO ARMSTRONGS THEORY WE ARE IN THE FOURTH WAVE AND THAT WAVE BOTTOMS IN 2011.45

however now get this....even though we are only in half way through a 51.4 cycle people are talking about something equivalent to the great depression which occured in the six wave

Now my question is this?


why are people who quote armstrong also calling something equivalent to the great depression?

good question?????