BBI babcock & brown infrastructure group

my bbi valuation / dbct sale flows, page-37

  1. 321 Posts.
    My point is just that, in three years time, still a very long way away, assuming we have cleared all or enough corporate debt but do not have enough cash to pay out BEPPA, there will be two real options.

    a) convert them to BBI, causing massive dilution
    b) amend the terms to a level acceptable for holders

    There are of course other options like partial payment, some other form of capital raising or whatever, but let's just ignore those for now.

    It's difficult to see that the first option would under any circumstances be preferable. There would be roughly 50% dilution or half the net assets, so this would cost at least 50 cents per share, effectively.

    On the other hand, they could extend the maturity of BEPPA for long enough to complete asset sales or save up retained dividends in order to pay them back. Three years at 20% would cost 15 cents per share, around a third as much.

    And obviously, in reality the terms wouldn't be anywhere near as extreme as that, but just for the purposes of the example it's appropriate.

    Anything wrong with my logic?
 
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