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01/04/21
12:06
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Originally posted by steve10:
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It is an algo & not usually correct. If SP falls it will be saying a few cents above the SP & vice versa. I think it is less than 20.1c fair value today. With another trade buyer group of a few thousand & B2B full launch it will be 20c fair value but not now. It appears SP may overshoot 50% to near 30c based on all the upcoming announcements. It may then retrace to 20c until further monthly updates with B2B figures. DT today announced the $250M MC second milestone so in his opinion as CEO this is most likely fair value. He does not seem surprised by the current MC or commenting it is too low/high etc. He must feel confident it is fair value & will stay at least $250M MC or 15c SP. At 20c SP the MC will be about $333M MC & at 30c SP about $499M. DW8 is now heading for the third milestone of $500M MC. Time frame I cannot predict. I am trying to be rational with revenue x growth rate to determine fair value MC but it is not working anymore with DW8. Maybe $500M MC will be fair value in 3 months & DT will be commenting on third milestone being achieved. The way things are progressing it appears DW8 is headed for $1B MC or about 60c SP in 12 months. You picked well with XRO so let's hope you get this one right too.
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That was my take away as well, Dean acknowledging the 250 MC means he's not surprised or concerned, which is a good sign. If I was a CEO and I felt the MC was too high i'd be keeping quiet.