i suggest you digest the regulatory framework that applies to AVM in respect to Insider deals and take over bid rules. These were filed 1st of July @ AEX.
Some salient points: CDI`s in this context are considered to be a security convertable into common shares (=> they count as well!) Whenever an insider (= more then 10% holder) aquieres an additional more 2% (be it common or CDI`s) he must disclose it. Any person who offers or aquieres more than 20% is deemed to make a TO bid.
Considering the above and FQ holding around 18% i do not see how it should be possible for FQ to aquiere a significant additional amount "in the dark" without disclosing it with a early warning report.
I agree a TO by FQ can not be excluded (this is what makes investing interesting, doesn`t it? ...) but i do not find it that likely from my understanding. Firstly i do believe FQ likes to be a pure copper mining house with "limited" exposure to "high risk" congo. Me thinks this is their positioning they like to have and keep to attract their targeted institutional ownership groups.
Without these kind of bounderies Anvil in contrast can manovre strategically more flexible for example into PGM or more in high risk high reward bringing other places. Another point, in case FQ would really make a TO bid at a modest level than i guess canadian institutions would feel "pissed off" that aquired recently Anvil in the IPO and more importantly those who will aquire in a capital increase which is the supposed next step in the strategic gameplay according to what i have read here. These groups are most likely also invested/interested in a high degree in FQ so for this reason appears to me not a smart thing for FQ to do. FQ has moreover lots of new projects some also include DRC (Luafa), all this really leaves it to your mentioned cash flow desires..
Anyway even if such kind of "bad scenario" will take place i.e. a TO by FQ at a modest price i can think of worse things the happen. In light of the above i am pretty confident such kind of potential TO will bring a decent premium to current prices and i will then stay with FQ, my second most favorite copper stock (after Anvil naturally).
