Hi Rupfel, the trend according to the experts such as Howard Klein and Albermale CEO seems to be extremely bullish for hydroxide and hardrock as they see it increasing from 30% to 60℅ market share over the next few years. (Exert from their latest feed below)........ but I imagine you would already be aware of this due to your recent investment in hard rock.
High demand for carbonate also a positive, price is increasing due to tight supply with in turn increases PLS spod pricing which is linked to both hydroxide and carbonate pricing.
Win Win IMO!
I agree that the trend is upwards.
However this year or 2 could be slower in the increase, due to the rise of lfp and there are only a finite number of LIOH plants in China with Ganfeng and Yahua being in No 1 & 2 spot.
New capacity this year is about 40,000 tonnes of LiOH. circa 500,000 NCM811 batteries or about an extra 400,000 tonnes of spod, if producing at full capacity, from my calculations.
It was very NCM811 Tesla driven, it depends on other NCM 811 manufacturers or similar can fill that gap and pass it, to see growth in the next year.
Given GXY and PLS are now producing, and Tianqi increasing sales and with MIN producing more the spod needed for LiOH capacity is being met even with AJM, out of the picture.
Both Ganfeng and Yahua bave stated they have 6 months supply.
GXY did have a busy qtr 1.
So why not qtr 2?
I doubt that the price has dropped.
The other point to consider is
the Australian/Chinese, short history, in the EV ESS space.
A starck difference from European German/ Chinese history over the same time and too established to fall.
If you add MIN and Tianqi spod production together this is enough for about 1,200,000 million NCM811 batteries per year.
This is the Chinese main source of OZ spod atm.
The next wave of LiOH plants is 18mths or more away, being built in the U.S. U.K. Canada, the triangle with new tech and will be much greener.
Re Taiwan, they are only at the pineapple stage with mainland China but Australia had to get involved, which ofcourse ups the anti.
https://amp-abc-net-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/13231088?amp_js_v=a6&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHKAFQArABIA%3D%3D#aoh=16175120643043&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abc.net.au%2Fnews%2Frural%2F2021-03-10%2Fis-australia-about-to-import-pineapples-from-taiwan%2F13231088
(20min delay)