TVN (ASX) TNG forum for considered and general comments

Originally posted by brunod: ↑

If the last month has shown us anything there is massive global appetite for all things green and renewable. While TNGs marketing machine appear immune
from capitalising on the free-fall of global headlines - it appears nonetheless that the TNG story is falling into line at the right time and the "stars" will align if not by design but because the project ticks many of the boxes sweeping the clean energy revolution globally.

This forum is intended to initiate some insightful and real time momentum on this stock and align the many threads into a single cohesive thread - which we can all contribute to resulting in better comms between us shareholders.

We are at the pivotal end of this mother coming to life. The elements that remain to de-risk Peake are few, with those timelines fast approaching completion and FID I believe imminent in 2021.

So let's recap on just how close we are to Peake becoming a reality:

- with the EIS supplementary submission due any day now, the refinery land being sorted and the FEED imminent (due in the next few months but hopefully by end of Q1) - the major elements of the critical D&C engineering will be de-risked.

- on the EIS supplementary the word from within is that it is on track.

- with that de-risking done the next trigger is the financing. KfW has of course built its financial model for Peake - it just needs the final cost inputs to lock in the final assessment on its debt package. From here it is a process within the bank and investment committee approval. KPMG globally I believe will secure all remaining debt and equity capital (if project equity required) sources. And let's no forget FX - currency and the strength of the $A (if maintained) can also play a part in improving project affordability if appropriate treasury and capital management policy can successfully hedge cross rates.

- with debt capital from KfW, NAÏF and mezz supplemented perhaps with quasi equity capital - I'm hoping limited equity dilution at the corporate level.

- and let's not forget the SMS value enhancements to this project including: the use of clean energy namely hydrogen to assist in the production process, the ability to exploit the technology beyond Peake and optimise battery energy storage technology as another and important clean energy pillar.

- let's also not forget that current iron ore prices adds a lot of value to this project.

My current ask if that you like this post to get TNG thumping on HC and to introduce as many like minded investors to share in what will be a company making year for TNG.

This is no longer a pipe dream but a reality that can monetise very quickly. Look at LKE in the last few weeks. TNG is not immune to having the dial also move quickly north like LKE - once these pivotal remaining elements are delivered. This will unleash a monumental shift in investor interest, see the pups exit with 5% plus of the company's shares on issue traded daily. This will re-rate the SP exponentially. LKE has gone from 6c to a 46c high yesterday in less than 3 weeks. It is nowhere near as progressed to production like TNG.

In my humble opinion, these final few elements of the project puzzle will get done and delivered. PB of course wants it done ASAP. He is circa 62 and is appropriately incentivised to deliver and monetise this baby. For him it will create generational wealth for his family. For us patient and vested shareholders the same can be true. I'm expecting things to move quickly and the re-rate to be swift.

How it ultimately lands of course I don't have a crystal ball. My tip is Peake will be taken out (with an offer for TNG) but with TivanCo being spun out first via demerger to TNG, investors and with SMS being a significant cornerstone investor.

If it shows that I am enthusiastic about TNG - well yes I am and I'm not apologetic about it. My aspiration is that every holder is a winner and the rewards of patience delivered to you all and your families. Best wishes to all.

Expand

If you had $850,000,000 to invest would you overlook the negatives of this project?
It is a very complex mining and processing operation that will not operate smoothly IMO. .
By contrast standard oxide gold mining and milling is not just simpler but the technology is proven with quick remediation of hold ups.
It's a huge Capex. An investment of $50m in a gold start up (RXL for example) can return $100m PA.
The NT location is far from ideal. WA is the no 1 in the world while the NT isn't even placed.
How profitable will it be in reality on the ground?
/2 IMO.

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(20min delay)
Last 4.8¢		Change -0.002(4.00%)		Mkt cap ! $84.63M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.0¢	5.0¢	4.8¢	$15.10K	308.7K

TNG forum for considered and general comments, page-249

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