RAC - Charts & Price Action, page-5172

DYOR. This comparative analysis is not intended as financial advice. You are encouraged to do your own research and make your own investment decisions. Disclosures - held, sentiment bullish/long. This is my own analysis and I have not received compensation for it.
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Update of my log chart.

• A bit of a bounce this afternoon that might be enough to keep a steeper narrow uptrend going ( which I have now widened and drawn at a shallower angle assuming $3+ holds as support ).
• It is now 1 month since Dr Tillett exercised all of his 9.9c options early for "tax planning" purposes:
  • "I chose to exercise my 4.25 million 9.9c options early for tax planning purposes. I have not sold any Race shares to fund the conversion, nor do I intend to sell any shares in the immediate or medium- term future. I believe Race Oncology has an extraordinary opportunity with Bisantrene and I look forward to seeing our clinical trial plans progress."
  • We now have the context of the plans for preclinical activities and clinical trials - what has been started and what is due to start and gives us insights on what could be complete.
• Price action trends and preclinical/clinical activities could move the price:
  • Notwithstanding value of Pillars 2 and 3 then preclinical data just for FTO could set a buyout offer at $20 in the September to January timeframe (peer transaction the Synthorx transaction)
    • We are likely to have sufficient preclinical data for FTO by the end of 2021
    • We may have a Phase I Dose Escalation trial for FTO inhibiting capability of Bisantrene underway by the end of the calendar year
  • Notwithstanding value of Pillars 1 and 2, then early readouts for AML could set a buyout offer at $32 in the October to March timeframe (peer transaction the Forty Seven transaction)
    • We could have first readouts for AML before the end of the calendar year
  • Notwithstanding value of of Pilars 1 and 3, then readouts/results for Breast Cancer trials could set a buyout offer at up to $137 by October 2022 (peer transaction the Immunomedics transaction which was for a much narrower subset of Breast Cancer).
    • We could have first readouts for Breast Cancer proof of concept trial by the end of the calendar year
  • On a risked NPV I currently value all pillars up to $84.
• Further thoughts / notes:
  • AML and Breast Cancer trials could take less time to recruit and achieve first readouts than initially thoughts, noting:
    • Stated plan in Eureka report interview to market to Big Pharma from end of 2021 ... by end of 2021 we could have the following completed / underway or significantly progressed:
      • Pillar 1 - FTO
        • Preclinical data for FTO (Melanoma and ccRCC)
        • A Phase I Dose Escalation trial underway
      • Pillar 2 - Breast Cancer
        • Preclinical data published in a prestigious journal
        • First readouts from a Phase II Proof of Concept trial
      • Pillar 3 - AML
        • Preclinical data from MD Anderson published
        • Preclinical data from MD Anderson presented at ASH
        • First readouts from R/R AML combination trial in Israel
        • EM AML trial underway
        • IND for US Paediatric trial
    • Dr T exercising options early - a buyout offer from December, allowing 4 months for formalities would see a transaction completing in early April 2022 ( just outside Dr T's "tax planning" window).

Current risked NPV:




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