The issue of Mt Cattlin and whether it should have been placed in C&M is an interesting one.
One key argument point for keeping it open was that of the customers, another we can add to that is that perhaps had Galaxy placed Mt Cattlin in C&M Yahua mightnot have received an agreement with Tesla. Yahua have their own mine that they are working on in China perhaps to assist in increasing supply which Mt Cattlin is not capable of, but also to be able to utilise when Mt Cattlin is unable to ship. - They also have an agreement with CXO which would be another replacement for supply when that occurs.
A retrospective look at the 2 years of Mt Cattlin operating at a loss contributed to the oversupply of hard rock and in turn resulted in both Alita & Altura going under (never start your lithium company name with AL, though Albemarle does offer redemption) Galaxy wasn't alone in that as Pilbara also contributed.
The difference however is that only one of those companies benefitted as a result of the downturn, with Pilbara picking up Altura.
If I was to compare Galaxy to another lithium company, I would say they are a match to Livent that didn't expand and are still trying to work out if they will increase production at Fenix.
Post the spodumene price downtrend we have Galaxy with an LCE capability of 25,000tpa meanwhile Pilbara went into it with 41,250tpa and emerged on the other side with 68,750tpa and @Dizzle explains in his post that they are working on expanding a further 50,000 tonnes of spodumene which takes that figure to 75,000tpa giving Pilbara a 3:1 in LCE on an apples-to-apples comparison.
Adding Sal De Vida to the mix for production of 12,000tpa during 2024 takes Galaxy to an LCE value of 37,000tpa which is there abouts 50% of the LCE capability that Pilbara is currently/nearterm capable of.
Obviously, I am more bullish on Pilbara at this time, the increasing spodumene pricing lends itself to advantage Pilbara significantly and Galaxy doesn't have the ability to increase its production other than selling tailings of 1% to 4% grading, depending on the decisions they make.
I am waiting with interest to see what the Sal De Vida announcement will be in the following days. In my mind, we know all there is to know and I don't expect any surprises there.
It's a shame that this company took so long to get itself on track, and that dithering has cost it the home ground advantage of being an early mover in the lithium space.
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