OBL inconsistent profits, page-30

So when you say OBL returns will become more predictable how do you model them i.e. what is your predictable NPAT?
At a higher level:

1. OBL has $15b in EPV currently;
2. On average 15% of EPV turns into revenue;
3. If we agree under the above structures OBL gets roughly 50% of these economics (if you refer to the ASX announcement explaining funds 2 and 3 they outline a $5m capital deployment where they end up with 46.9% so assume 50% (See attachment below).
4. If we assume an annual overhead expense (all OBL expense of $120m) by annualising the half year Employee benefits expense ($28.5m) Corporate and office expenses ($8m) and Other expenses ($24m)

Then over the next 4 years they can expect revenue of $15b x 15% x 0.5 = $1,125m in total.
Less expenses of 4 x $120m = $480m
Equals profit before tax of $645m
Profit after tax of $450m
Over 4 years = $112.5m per annum.

Now thats not too bad I guess but they are taking all the risk to achieve that while their SPV partners are essentially getting a risk free double digit return which is why what used to be a highly lucrative business model (balance sheet funding) is now a high risk so so returning business model.

PS: The above assumes their historical 1.6x ROIC. If the actual return is lower than that OBL wear all the risk to that and the economics are much lower and the business will produce no profit / losses which is what you are seeing given the results in fund 1 IMO.