I took the announcement to be a negative for likelihood of UMC getting their ore to port, and sold most of my holding.
A gamble either way - holding or selling IMO.
BHP and Rio will have their hands full working out optimum supply chain operations, and bringing the two organizations together. They will not want to be troubled by small IO explorers wanting to make their supply chain scenarios more complex.
In any event, I wonder whether they actually COULD do anything at present - as the new JV company would have to be the purchaser of UMC (to maintain the 50-50 ownership of assets) - and it won't exist for some time to come.
The only possible salvation would be an alternate takeover offer, at which time Rio & BHP would talk & decide whether they wanted to allow another operator in the heartland. I suppose BHP could then take UMC out & there would be a small adjustment to the financial settlement amount between companies.
The real prize for BHP was always access to Rio Ports. They have not had a shortage of resource - they have had limited supply chain capability.
The FMG train line might also be an option, but I think FMG have also got their hands full.
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