Will QAN survive?, page-624

Probably because without government charity payments, Qantas would either be in administration right now, or coming back to investors and/or financiers with their cap in hand begging for more capital.

If you think that is a healthy business, you may want to reconsider things.

Granted, there are some upsides for Qantas (Virgin is a basket case) and Qantas now rules the roost of Australian corporate flyers, but the headwinds are massive, namely:

- Environment of medium & long term interest rates beginning to rise
- Any upside to the world aviation market re-opening is actually a catch 22 because the sudden rush of demand will also send world oil prices sharply higher, particularly if there are supply chain issues at the same time
- If vaccines don't do what we've been told they do, Qantas is basically a sitting duck. I hope their bankers have rights over any security.
- Any future significant outbreaks delay reopening and put additional pressure on the balance sheet which may need to be propped up with more investor / banker capital.