financial model - ndo - investment bank analyz, page-42

Well done Par15, there's nothing like the clinical approach from a take-over point of view. It high lights the elastic connection between value and share price.


On this ....
""" However I reviewed their last quarterly report - Cash Flow Statement, it appears that the actual number is $43/barrel. I got this by taking their cash flow cost of production divided by the total number of barrels they produced for the quarter. """"


I tend to think quite a bit of cost would have to be amortised by GPC with the on-again, off again disconnection problems met earlier on.

Perhaps if you are speaking with a knowledgeable person at Nido you might ask about this one-off expense, because if it is, then we should be looking a reduced cost regime in the medium term.

For what it's worth, I think we will find oil at $90 before too long. The reasons are several. For one, OPEC want higher prices and will squeeze or threaten to do so - and next, if the 2008 spike high is removed from the long trend, and a carry on from say, four years prior, is established, then $90 seems to fit reasonably well.

Subjective of course, but the 2008 machinations were so far removed from the real world of supply/demand that they need to be discounted entirely.

If you have a glance through this 2008 article it will explain some of it. Noting, the principal partner in the Galoc Production Co has since been on watch from the US Congress. Indeed, the game is over for them.

Also, both the Philippines Govt and Nido are now well aware of the situation


http://seekingalpha.com/article/92642-oil-markets-speculators-and-vitol-group-s-controlling-stake