financial model - ndo - investment bank analyz, page-44

Hello Gents,

Appreciate all of the feedback.

** Model is being run with a range of assumptions. Please use numbers that you believe are appropriate **

A couple of people asked about changing the WACC calculation:

Please keep in mind that the last convertible bond was done at a 5% risk premium creating the original valuation number.

A WACC of 12.05% (Risk Free rate: 3%, Beta: 1, Risk Premium of 10%) with exactly the same inputs are before creates a valuation of $0.47 AUD/share.

A WACC of 15.00% (Risk Free rate: 3%, Beta: 1, Risk Premium of 13.5%) with exactly the same inputs are before creates a valuation of $0.32 AUD/share.

Thank you to the people that looked at the marginal cost of production number. I did not consider that the cash flow cost may be including the cost burden of the initial fix ups. However I will keep using the number of $43/barrel rather than $35/barrel (last NDO presentation) to be conservative.

I used 257 days as in the last quarterly report they said they were pumping 14,400 barrels on average a day using 257 days. Hence I have just taken the number from this report.

All numbers have been sourced from company documents.

Obviously there are many risks associated with these projects. I just wanted to help create a model - and please modify with your own numbers to help show a method of valuation for these types of companies.

I will try and do one valuation each week. I will do OEL or KAR next based on popular request. I do not hold either of those stocks.

I would like to work for Jim Rogers, unfortunately he is in Singapore and I am in Hong Kong.

Take care and good luck, remember what I have written here is just my best guess of the future. The future is unknown.

Kind Regards,
Par15