EXR has a 30% chance of success, how to value this?, page-17

Lets see. The company has:

• An exclusive exploration license over a 30,000 sq/km area (The size of Belgium).
• Nomgon 1 core hole intersected 82 meters of net coal from a total depth of 491m (Announcement 5 Feb 20)
• The Average gas content (raw) of >5m3/t measured in very thick coal seam (Announcement 26 Feb 20)
• As such the Nomgon I result of the well meet the technical definition of a gas discovery under the Petroleum
  Resource Management System (PRMS) (Announcement 26 Feb 20)
• executed a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Mongolia’s MT Group under which the
  parties will seek to develop a small scale LNG (SSLNG) plant to supply fuel to the South Gobi’s large
  coal trucking fleet. (Announcement 12 June 20)
• Analysis from Nomgon I revealed the coals were fully gas saturated (Announcement 8 July 20)
• Total depth (TD) of Nomgon-2 called at 550 metres. Logging confirmed 91 metres of net coal, including 51 net metres in the main seam. (Announcement 29 July 20)
• Nomgon-2 main seam’s gas content averages > 5m3/tonne (on a raw basis), Permeability at Nomgon-2 significantly higher than Nomgon-1 (Announcement 20 August 20)
• Nomgon-S3 strat-hole meets key objective, measuring ~78 metres of coal (Announcement 20 August 20)
• Nomgon 3S strat-hole final logged coals total 88 metres (Announcement 1 September 20)
• Nomgon 4S strat-hole extends resource area and logs coals of 35 metres (Announcement 1 September 20)
• Nomgon-2 corehole. These recorded dry ash free (DAF) numbers in the main seam averaging 8.6 m3/tonne. This is
  very similar to the 8.9 m3/t measured in the Nomgon-1 well (as announced on 26 June 2020) (Announcement 23 October 20)
• Nomgon 5S Re-drill well logs a total of 47 metres of net coal (Announced 5 November 20)
• Yangir 1S well intersects 27 metres of gassy coals in a new sub-basin (Announced 23 November 20)
• Adsorption results from Nomgon-2 indicate fully gas saturated coals (3 December 20)
• Independent Prospective Resources report updated for first time since exploration started risked 2U (best case) of 14.6 Tcf, a 92% increase from the 2018 estimate. (Announced 9 December 20)
• Contingent resource booked at Nomgon covering 13sq/km of the 30,000 sq/km PSC. This resource is more than sufficient to provide gas for the expected effective life of a power plant at the site. (Announcement 7 April 21)
• Yangir 2 reached a total depth of 578 metres and in the first 300 metres logged 17 metres of coal(logging beyond 300 metres was not feasible due to hole conditions). Nine coal samples from 288 to 301 metres were placed in the desorption laboratory and these recorded raw gas contents ranging from 4.2 to 7.0 m3/tonne (average 5.3m3/tonne). The desorbed gas was chromatographically analysed and contained 99% natural gas (i.e. methane). This gas composition is essentially of sales gas specification, which means no additional processing would be required to sell it into a third party pipeline. (Announcement 145 April 21)

Other than the activities listed above the management of EXR have done absolutely nothing. It appears all they've managed to do is continually de-risk the project, achieve all goals, open multiple sub-basins - and continually hit high quality, fully saturated coals. Thanks for making me go back and reanalyse why I hold, continue to accumulate, and have not sold a single share in this company.

You're welcome.