Agreed. Why would investors pump in so much money over time and not get any returns back unless they were selling on spikes? Maybe opportunity cost too high or tax offset or maybe just the opportunity to buy lower. Sinclair is in at average .039 from memory (could be wrong), recent raise at .037 for 35m, before July’s spike, the volume was practically fractions of today’s daily volumes. EV of today closer to ~27m including imminent R&d refund. Yet they continue to spend around 3.6m per quarter and I just wish I was smart enough to calculate some sort of ROI in that expenditure..
There is no doubt in my mind that someone made a huge mistake when reading the us fda pathway announcement that re-rated this to a scenario where the US market size for MSA was derisked, hence the hundreds of millions market cap added. So the potential is there for sure but at the moment it seems like there is just need to be patient, particularly for 2H FY22.
Ultimately I believe this will have a rise within the next year which is why this is going on the bottom drawer for me. The board are a bunch of nerds who live and breathe science, who are st the top of their game and prominent in their field. Let’s hope that they measure up to the faith I’m putting in them, as I am willing to trust them with a sizeable portion of my spare cash at the moment.
At least the only comfort o have is that the further it drops the opportunity to buy more presents itself. Also that the lower it goes from here the more undervalued it becomes so to me it becomes a safe zone even if I’m staring down a 10-20k loss at that stage.
From memory the small caps presentation I watched a few weeks ago from March showed Stamler indicating ATH being “SLIGHTLY undervalued”. A bit of a change of tone from the beginning of the year, where the SP was higher than in march’s small cap prezo and Stamler at the time saying ath was SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued.
My only comfort at night is knowing that institutions like regal and CS have NFI when it comes to the science or the right valuation for this- it’s anyones guess at this stage really because of the binary outcome for ATh434. The only people best able to value this would be life biosciences and I doubt they would share any information at all about their real thoughts of the potential and future growth projections for ATH outside what they need to tell people to invest in the company to fund operations.
I am willing to bet within the next 2 years for sure this will have its time in the sun but likely more between now and next July.
This is my stock pick of the year and I’m not selling unless this goes boom or bust.
Gltah and dyor
ATH Price at posting:
3.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)