Gold has risen A$150 in the last four weeks, now $2,313 per ounce. AUC drilling programs continue with JORC upside that will exceed 2.0M ounces of recoverable gold resources. IMHO next JORC update will come later in the year and my conceptual guesstimate will push towards a LOM that exceeds 10 years at a production rate of 150,000 - 200,000 ounces per year (from open pits) in the updated BFS.
Assume ASIC of A$1,600 per ounce at sale price of $2,300 per ounce, produces free cash flow of $700 x 150,000 = $105M annualized EBITDA x 6-8 = $630M - $840M. That is a minimum of 10x current price.
IMHO fresh drilling at Rifle Range and Dingo will extend resources by 5,000m to the south and 4,000m to the north at Jackson and Olympia will provide total resources of 3-5M ounces of gold. Drills have stopped at 220m depth, where resources remain open at depth.
AUC has to be a prime take over target by larger scale gold producers who are running similar back of envelope guesstimates on large scale, low cost, near term producers, with very significant exploration upside.
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