Evening all,
With only 6 trading days left until the end of April, my opinion is that the market will receive significant AVZ news between now and the end of the month.
To remind, we are awaiting:
*Remaining 53% of Tin off-take (overdue) - note: Tin futures closed at a 10-year high yesterday
*One remaining ESIA submission to A.C.E in the DRC for approval (overdue)
*Mining permit (PE) application submitted to CAMI in the DRC (overdue)
*SEZ update (overdue) - note: 'Sacred Union' Government with newly appointed ministers is now in place, paving the way for short term SEZ progression under Tshisekedi's recently strengthened leadership. Also, nice to see former AVZ Director Guy Loando appointed as the new Minister for Spatial Planning and Development.
*Lithium Hydroxide Study from Noram, Canada (overdue)
*Process Plant & HEPP EPC award (due Q1/Q2)
*MOU on Funding with syndicated DFI group (due April) following the satisfaction of a MAJOR condition being met i.e. the completion of AVZ's SC6 off-take
*PLS off-take (due April)
*General update / March Quarterly report (due April) - elpha estimate: @$7m in cash reserves
*Broker coverage initiated? (BTD suggests YES & soon so watch this space)
*Updated Resource / Reserves calculations (April/May)
*Investor Roadshow / Company Presentations (April/May) - doubt they'll be re-presenting what we already know i.e. expect lots of new info and substantial news by that time (all IMO though)
*Office based early works commencement (May)
*HEPP PPP agreement execution (May) - could include AVZ Power update / SOA IMO
*Additional 5-15% of project from Cominiere? / Dathcom ownership up to 90% (May/June)
*Mining Licence awarded (slated for May but more likely June IMO - BTD suggests 6-8 weeks from application being submitted)
*Finalisation of SEZ framework & Tax incentives & possibly a Sovereign Guarantee TBC (May/June)
*Optimised DFS - on track to be an absolute cracker IMHO - peers to read and weep (June)
*Final Investment Decision (June but likely to be July IMO given that FID is subject to Mining permit timelines)
*Lithium Hydroxide JV partner (pre or post execution of Project Finance?)
*Execution of Project Finance / establishment of funds (June/July) prior to construction. This will include a 20-30% equity component IMO.
Question 1. Will the equity component be in exchange for a % of Dathcom (resulting in zero shareholder dilution), or will it comprise AVZ shares (dilution but Dathcom remains a 100% AVZ/Cominiere entity), or perhaps a combination of both AVZ shares and project interest?
Question 2. Will a large cornerstone investor and/or JV partner provide 100% of the equity component or will equity comprise of several strategic investors and include a shareholder entitlement scheme? Either way, those betting on a straight CR (especially at a discount to today's price) could be bitterly disappointed.
View attachment 3122693Finally (and relative to other stocks, commodities, ETFs & general indexes), AVZ & the price of Battery Grade Lithium compounds have a lot of catching up to do IMO i.e. even just to reach their old highs of early 2018. However, the fundamentals for both are now stronger than ever IMHO.
Select up-to-date monthly HA charts below.
View attachment 3122858Watch the demand for Battery Grade Lithium Hydroxide & SC6 soar from here on in IMO. The supply deficit (forcing higher prices to incentivise the massive investment required throughout the rest of this decade) is already upon us and will continue to grow.
View attachment 3122912View attachment 3122987View attachment 3122978View attachment 3122990View attachment 3122972As Adam Ant would say, it's
'TIME' to crank up the mixtape!
View attachment 3123011The stage is now set for the
'Escondida Of Lithium' to
'Shine'.
'This is the timeThis is the dayThat we've been waiting forAll the world will stopTo watch you shine'@qball , please add to the mixtape
GLTA and Happy
Earth Day everyone!
Cheers
Elpha
