" When making estimates for revenue in future years, what do you guys take into consideration? (I'm talking about Clinical Trials only)." Over the next 5 years should be at least 12% to 15% per year (growth in value of contracted revenue). 8% - 10% from the growth in clinical trials that require measurement of cognition as an endpoint and for Cogstate another 3% - 5% gain from the shift to digital from pen and paper. I would be disappointed if we did not do US$ 50 million of contract sales in the next financial year.
"How many trials are inside the current $56 million of backlog? Is it 5? 10? And how many AD related trials will there be in the next 10 years?" No idea but it will be more than 8 to 10. I would guess the number would be more likely be about 60 or 70 just based on historical average contract size. But you are probably right that 10 or 12 will account for a significant majority of the backlog. I would also estimate that AD will only account for 50%- 60% of that backlog by value. As to how many AD trials in the next 10 years, I think it is safe to assume that number will grow but I think the more important question is how many later stage trials, I think it is likely that this number will substantially grow .
" How can the ruling on Aducanumab influence the number of trials in the next 10 years? " If the result is positive I would expect it to accelerate the number of trials as they will have shown the market what are the thresholds they need to achieve to gain FDA approval. It will also firm up some of the commercial estimates of the market size and I would suspect will also lead to drug combination trials. For example it would seem obvious to try Aducanumab with some of the neuro anti inflammatories that are under development.
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