group production on QTR down 8.2 %
Current YTD total 244963
Bottom end of guidance 370000
Production required to reach bottom end of guidance 125037
Production last QTR 82303
Increase required this QTr over last QTr to meet min guidance of 370K OZ - 51.9% in production this QTR over last (just reported) required to meet min production
I think I saw 43% once in the last QTR of 2020 FY
Production profile per QTr graph looking for 35% of annual production for the FY ended june this QTR.
profile is moving target
QTR 1 / 19% (production was 77990 - that would mean 410473 OZ PA
QTR 2 / 24% (production was 89670 - that would mean 373635 oz PA
QTr 3 / 22% (production just in 82303 - this would mean 374104 oz PA
Cash position
Debt static at 102M
Cash on hand 100M down from 118M
Net Debt -2M
Operational Cash from operations for the group DOWN 50.6% ( 41 M down from 83M) in the QTR
this despite a 5.6% rise in average Gold price achieved during the QTR (2126 to 2247)
200M in undrawn syndicated loans available, 170M USD capex required for simberi disclose yesterday
Net assets remain 191 per share
current 6% premium over current price
It ground itself down to net assets as forecast a little while ago.
Given its current cash generation falling 50% ish QTR on Qtr from all the group operations despite higher gold price achieved which I think is poor, continued rising cash costs and its requirement to lift production this QTr by 51.9% over this qtr reported to reach minimum Annual production guidance - I still do not think any premium over asset per share is justified.
Whilst commentary is very positive about the building brilliance program, I don't see anything actually flowing through into numbers with production down QTR on QTR, cash costs up QTr on QTr, and a huge drop in cash flow from operations across every asset.......if your filling the mill, de bottlenecking but producing huge drops in cash flow from operations Id say the program is not delivering yet
Its a huge ask imo to achieve 125K OZ this QTr, but not impossible.
huge price paid for Atlantic with production profile pretty static
Gwalia needs to fire out 67500 OZ ish this QTr to meet min production, it hasn't done according to any of the numbers per QTR this year, nowhere near it.
Wondering if some writedowns / impairments are coming for these two items.
nothing to stimulate me into rushing back in - certainly not a premium given YTD performance a (cash flow from operations, production and cash costs) and the spectacular requirement needed to lift operations to a point currently to meet year production end guidance .
Anyhoooo good luck - still think it grinds lower to negate the premium from 191 until the bankers see spectacular changes to bank balances
SBM Price at posting:
$2.03 Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
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