Ann: Third Fiscal Quarter 2021 and 4C Cashflow Report, page-16

The MAU number is no doubt crucial here - people are right to be skeptical of the growth potential when this key metric drops. The question is how much of that drop was seasonality. We can assume from the booked contract revenue in yesterday's presentation that Q4 will be a record month for receipts, so this does look like a temporary blip to me.

Looking at all the available information, I think it's safe to bet on it being RedTri related. Looking back at the announcement of the acquisition in Jan 2020 and we see that at the time, TNY had MAU's of ~1.37m, compared to RedTri at 2m (for a combined total of 3.37m).*

In other words, in just over a year, the MAU has actually increased by ~800k. That's not particularly amazing, but nonetheless it's not actually going backwards on a YoY basis.

My best guess is that the TNY app remains relatively steady during Q3, whereas for a variety of reasons, eyeballs disappear on the RedTri platform after the holiday period is over and people no longer need gift ideas, holiday inspiration, etc.

Given the earliest results we have to track any potential seasonality across the combined platforms is from a portion of Q4 FY20 (April–June), we simply don't have enough YoY data to make this call definitively.

All this aside, and in truth it's still very early days for Tinybeans. They have much to do to prove they have a sustainable platform that can grow its user base, but generally I think they are making some interesting investments into the right areas to do this, and I would expect the MAU to bounce back strongly next Qtr.

*Just to clarify, MAU's are tracked across both platforms as a combined total after the acquisition.