Ann: Makuutu Rare Earths Project Scoping Study, page-108

You're both a bit off I think. It was clearly an average announcement compared to analyst predictions, so I can understand the muted market response. Doing #s on 100% makes no sense at all, I agree with China here (I think that's a first). That'd either come at a cost or simply as a conversion to Ionic shares and increase the SOI so it makes more or less net 0 difference to the SP, although in investment banking logic it'll probably be accreditive.

Saying it should be 10c and thus 1c now in 2024 however makes as little sense to me. Shares once in production are valued more on a PE ration than NPV.

They only give an EBITDA for the overall 11 years, that's AUD 1.71 bill * 0.6 (current share) * 0.85 (worst case gov 15% free carry) = 872 mill, or $79.2 mill p.a..., let's assume $80m. At a PE of 15 it'd be $1.2b MC, at 30 it'd be $2.4b. Undiluted (rough numbers 3.5b SOI) that'd be a theoretical SP in production between $0.34-$0.68 SP. Let's assume we issue 25% more shares, that brings the SP at that MC to a $0.255-$0.51. Now working backwards, if we say fair value right now is 15% of "production value", then we get somewhere between $0.038-0.077. It's been trading in that range for a while now, currently we're in the very low end of that range. Given the low capital hurdle I think finance is relatively easy if all the other boxes gets ticked.

Obviously there's a lot of water to go under the bridge here before it gets to that point and REE prices and metallurgy are the biggest variables in terms of sensitivity. Also some big assumptions above.

I've certainly learnt to take analyst reports with a huge pinch of salt and not get too excited. Definitely thought their capex numbers were under-baked which was correct. Just thinking it through for my own purposes. Remaining a conviction hold for me. Thoughts above simply my way to think through what to do.

Just for an interesting comparison if people are interested; here's an early Lynas Feasibility Study:
https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20050330/pdf/3q9hzgdhm5c51.pdf