Ann: Q3 FY21 Quarterly Report, page-27

yep, I don't know.
It is frustrating for sure.
At least one Insto has been selling down.
Trouble is, it is APA which has stuffed up the processing.
Both COE and APA knew the gas was sour with Sulphur.
I was told that the sulphur issue was not unique - there are other fields around the world with sulphur contaminants, and the porcessing plants have handled the sulphur.
So it seems it is the APA contractors who have installed plant which is causing the absorbers to foam, and then the plant automatically shuts down.

But we are seeing output now at a consistent 48tj/d.
Even if Orbost only produces at 48tj/d, that still is a stepchange up in revenue. 48tj/d at $6/gj is $105m p/a, plus 15TJ from Otway another $33m p/a totalling COE revenue of $138m p/a.
Sales revenue from gas last FY2020 was $64m.

So a doubling in Revenue - yet the SP has dropped to 26c ??
IMHO, even at 48tj/d, COE is in a way better position now than 12mths ago.
Assuming Orbost can maintain 48tj/d, COE will pump out cash, and can repay debt, because banks will simply push out debt profile to allow for delay in Orbost prod ramp-up.

So IMHO, the SP drop is just market disappointment at Orbost problems, and nervousness as to whether Orbost can ramp up to nameplate.

Difference with COE is that its market and GSAs are domestic, with Tier 1 customers.
The market for Aust gas outlook is tight.
GSA's are medium/long term.
Pricing looks like maybe $6gj plus - others here say $7+.
Near term Growth to come from Athena, plus connecting of Otway assets.
Then Manta and other Otway development.

Brokers Bell Potter and JP Morgan still have price target at 45c/46c.

I still maintain, that at some point, COE will be a takeover target.
The COE register is wide open with Instos' and they will sell if an attractive offer emerges.

Crucially for me, is that COE will be generating cashflow, and should not come looking for equity (unless it is presented with some attractive opportunity).

Cashlow will mean COE is not eating itslef like some other O&G companies.

All just IMHO.