On Gero's overnight pricing thread I posted some comments about the outlook for Talga in the years ahead and where I see the share price in 2026.
Someone pointed out that was not the place to run that discussion and I agree.
As sometimes happens we post following a comment by someone else and that's what happened over there and as I want to offer some additional thoughts I will do it here.
$150 in 2026 is the figure I've arrived at after crunching quite a few numbers which in turn are all based on assumptions but they are assumptions which today I see as reasonable.
But as the future unfolds, those assumptions may well prove to be wrong or might have to be amended and in case you think I am a set and forget person who buys a stock and doesn't come back periodically to monitor how it's going you're wrong. I watch all my investments closely.
For those of your familiar with change management processes you will understand the five broad steps below:
- What is the company's objective (what change is it trying to introduce).
- Where is it now.
- What is the plan to get from where it is to where it wants to get to.
- Implement the plan.
- Review.
From the review we work out where we departed from the plan and why, so we create a feedback loop and begin the process again.
Here are what I see as potential risks ahead:
- Failure to get approval to mine big quantities.
- Failure to raise funds for CAPEX.
- LKAB or Mitsui wanting a big chunk of the business.
- An early stage buy-out.
- New technology overtaking Li-ion technology.
- A worldwide economic crash.
- War.
And here are the opportunities for additional upside:
- The market expands far faster than projected.
- Emerging new tech alternatives fail.
- Additional incentives are thrown at the industry to offset the effects climate change.
- New markets are found for graphite/graphene.
Anyway, I think you get the idea.Clearly, by continuously monitoring the pulse of the industry and the company we can get a pretty good picture of how things will play out.
Will the share price get to $150 in 2026, I have no idea.
But that is my best guess based on the assumptions above.
Equally, if there is a major change to any of those assumptions then my forecast will also change.
Only by constantly monitoring and reviewing the company's performance can we come up with a realistic figure.
If there's a better way I'd really like to hear about it.
But as of right now my plan is to start selling at $150 in mid-2026.
Anyway, no matter what approach you adopt I wish each of you all the very best.
(20min delay)